Coal burst spatio-temporal prediction method based on bidirectional long short-term memory network

Abstract

Abstract The increasingly severe state of coal burst disaster has emerged as a critical factor constraining coal mine safety production, and it has become a challenging task to enhance the accuracy of coal burst disaster prediction. To address the issue of insufficient exploration of the spatio-temporal characteristic of microseismic data and the challenging selection of the optimal time window size in spatio-temporal prediction, this paper integrates deep learning methods and theory to propose a novel coal burst spatio-temporal prediction method based on Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory (Bi-LSTM) network. The method involves three main modules, including microseismic spatio-temporal characteristic indicators construction, temporal prediction model, and spatial prediction model. To validate the effectiveness of the proposed method, engineering application tests are conducted at a high-risk working face in the Ordos mining area of Inner Mongolia, focusing on 13 high-energy microseismic events with energy levels greater than 105 J. In terms of temporal prediction, the analysis indicates that the temporal prediction results consist of 10 strong predictions and 3 medium predictions, and there is no false alarm detected throughout the entire testing period. Moreover, compared to the traditional threshold-based coal burst temporal prediction method, the accuracy of the proposed method is increased by 38.5%. In terms of spatial prediction, the distribution of spatial prediction results for high-energy events comprises 6 strong hazard predictions, 3 medium hazard predictions, and 4 weak hazard predictions.

Keywords

• Coal burst
• Spatio-temporal prediction
• Microseismic spatio-temporal characteristic indicators
• Bidirectional long short-term memory network