Role of temperature, influenza and other local characteristics in seasonality of mortality: a population-based time-series study in Japan

Abstract

Objectives To investigate the extent to which temperature and influenza explained seasonality of mortality in Japan and to examine the association of the seasonality with prefecture-specific characteristics.Design We conducted time-series analysis to estimate the seasonal amplitude before and after adjusting for temperature and/or influenza-like illness (ILI). Next, we applied linear mixed effect models to investigate the association of seasonal amplitudes with each indicator on prefecture-specific characteristics on climate, demographic and socioeconomic factors and adaptations.Setting 47 prefectures in JapanParticipants Deaths for all-cause, circulatory, and respiratory disease between 1999 and 2015.Outcome measures Peak-to-trough ratio (PTR, a measure of seasonal amplitude).Results The nationwide unadjusted-PTRs for all-cause, circulatory and respiratory mortality were 1.29 (95% CIs: 1.28 to 1.31), 1.55 (95% CI: 1.52 to 1.57) and 1.45 (95% CI: 1.43 to 1.48), respectively. These PTRs reduced substantially after adjusting for temperature but very little after a separate adjustment for ILI. Furthermore, seasonal amplitudes varied between prefectures. However, there was no strong evidence for the associations of PTR with the indicators on prefecture-specific characteristics.Conclusions Seasonality of mortality is primarily driven by temperature in Japan. The spatial variation in seasonal amplitudes was not associated with prefecture-specific characteristics. Although further investigations are required to confirm our findings, this study can help us gain a better understanding of the mechanisms underlying seasonality of mortality.