Examining the trade-offs between human fertility and longevity over three centuries using crowdsourced genealogy data

Abstract

The evolution theory of ageing predicts that reproduction comes with long-term costs of survival. However, empirical studies in human species report mixed findings of the relationship between fertility and longevity, which varies by populations, time periods, and individual characteristics. One explanation underscores that changes in survival conditions over historical periods can moderate the negative effect of human fertility on longevity. This study investigates the fertility-longevity relationship in Europe during a period of rapid modernisation (seventeenth to twentieth centuries) and emphasises the dynamics across generations. Using a crowdsourced genealogy dataset from the FamiLinx project, our sample consists of 81,924 women and 103,642 men born between 1601 and 1910 across 16 European countries. Results from multilevel analyses show that higher fertility has a significantly negative effect on longevity. For both women and men, the negative effects are stronger among the older cohorts and have reduced over time. Moreover, we find similar trends in the dynamic associations between fertility and longevity across four geographical regions in Europe. Findings and limitations of this study call for further investigations into the historical dynamics of multiple mechanisms behind the human evolution of ageing.