Water demand prediction optimization method in Shenzhen based on the zero-sum game model and rolling revisions

Abstract

In this study, a deep learning model based on zero-sum game (ZSG) was proposed for accurate water demand prediction. The ensemble learning was introduced to enhance the generalization ability of models, and the sliding average was designed to solve the non-stationarity problem of time series. To solve the problem that the deep learning model could not predict water supply fluctuations caused by emergencies, a hypothesis testing method combining Student's t-test and discrete wavelet transform was proposed to generate the envelope interval of the predicted values to carry out rolling revisions. The research methods were applied to Shenzhen, a megacity with extremely short water resources. The research results showed that the regular bidirectional models were superior to the unidirectional model, and the ZSG-based bidirectional models were superior to the regular bidirectional models. The bidirectional propagation was conducive to improving the generalization ability of the model, and ZSG could better guide the model to find the optimal solution. The fluctuations in water supply were mainly caused by the floating population, but the fluctuation was still within the envelope interval of the predicted values. The predicted values after rolling revisions were very close to the measured values. HIGHLIGHTS Exploratory data analysis can discover laws from dataset, and the analysis of dataset can provide reference for modeling.; A deep learning model based on zero-sum game was proposed to better guide the model to find the optimal solution.; The ensemble learning was introduced so as to enhance the generalization ability of models.; The Student's t-test and discrete wavelet transform were proposed to generate the envelope interval of the predicted values to make rolling revisions.; The sliding average was designed to solve the non-stationarity problem of time series.;

Keywords

• deep learning
• discrete wavelet transform
• ensemble learning
• envelope interval
• rolling revisions
• zero-sum game