Frontiers in Public Health (Jul 2021)
Prioritizing the First Doses of SARS-CoV-2 Vaccine to Save the Elderly: The Case Study of Italy
- Giuseppe Pontrelli,
- Giuseppe Pontrelli,
- Giulio Cimini,
- Giulio Cimini,
- Marco Roversi,
- Marco Roversi,
- Andrea Gabrielli,
- Andrea Gabrielli,
- Gaetano Salina,
- Gaetano Salina,
- Stefania Bernardi,
- Stefania Bernardi,
- Francesca Rocchi,
- Francesca Rocchi,
- Alessandra Simonetti,
- Alessandra Simonetti,
- Carlo Giaquinto,
- Carlo Giaquinto,
- Carlo Giaquinto,
- Paolo Rossi,
- Paolo Rossi,
- Francesco Sylos Labini
Affiliations
- Giuseppe Pontrelli
- Academic Department of Pediatrics, Bambino Gesù Children's Hospital, Istituto di Ricovero e Cura a Carattere Scientifico, Rome, Italy
- Giuseppe Pontrelli
- University of Tor Vergata, Rome, Italy
- Giulio Cimini
- Physics Department and Istituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare, University of Tor Vergata, Rome, Italy
- Giulio Cimini
- Enrico Fermi Research Center, Rome, Italy
- Marco Roversi
- Academic Department of Pediatrics, Bambino Gesù Children's Hospital, Istituto di Ricovero e Cura a Carattere Scientifico, Rome, Italy
- Marco Roversi
- University of Tor Vergata, Rome, Italy
- Andrea Gabrielli
- Enrico Fermi Research Center, Rome, Italy
- Andrea Gabrielli
- Engineering Department, Roma Tre University, Rome, Italy
- Gaetano Salina
- Physics Department and Istituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare, University of Tor Vergata, Rome, Italy
- Gaetano Salina
- Enrico Fermi Research Center, Rome, Italy
- Stefania Bernardi
- Academic Department of Pediatrics, Bambino Gesù Children's Hospital, Istituto di Ricovero e Cura a Carattere Scientifico, Rome, Italy
- Stefania Bernardi
- University of Tor Vergata, Rome, Italy
- Francesca Rocchi
- Academic Department of Pediatrics, Bambino Gesù Children's Hospital, Istituto di Ricovero e Cura a Carattere Scientifico, Rome, Italy
- Francesca Rocchi
- University of Tor Vergata, Rome, Italy
- Alessandra Simonetti
- Academic Department of Pediatrics, Bambino Gesù Children's Hospital, Istituto di Ricovero e Cura a Carattere Scientifico, Rome, Italy
- Alessandra Simonetti
- University of Tor Vergata, Rome, Italy
- Carlo Giaquinto
- Academic Department of Pediatrics, Bambino Gesù Children's Hospital, Istituto di Ricovero e Cura a Carattere Scientifico, Rome, Italy
- Carlo Giaquinto
- University of Tor Vergata, Rome, Italy
- Carlo Giaquinto
- Department of Pediatrics, University of Padua, Padua, Italy
- Paolo Rossi
- Academic Department of Pediatrics, Bambino Gesù Children's Hospital, Istituto di Ricovero e Cura a Carattere Scientifico, Rome, Italy
- Paolo Rossi
- University of Tor Vergata, Rome, Italy
- Francesco Sylos Labini
- Enrico Fermi Research Center, Rome, Italy
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.3389/fpubh.2021.684760
- Journal volume & issue
-
Vol. 9
Abstract
SARS-CoV-2 is currently causing hundreds of deaths every day in European countries, mostly in not yet vaccinated elderly. Vaccine shortage poses relevant challenges to health authorities, called to act promptly with a scarcity of data. We modeled the mortality reduction of the elderly according to a schedule of mRNA SARS-CoV-2 vaccine that prioritized first dose administration. For the case study of Italy, we show an increase in protected individuals up to 53.4% and a decrease in deaths up to 19.8% in the cohort of over 80's compared with the standard vaccine recalls after 3 or 4 weeks. This model supports the adoption of vaccination campaigns that prioritize the administration of the first doses in the elderly.
Keywords
