Data-Driven Model of the Power-Grid Frequency Dynamics

Abstract

The energy system is rapidly changing to accommodate the increasing number of renewable generators and the general transition towards a more sustainable future. Simultaneously, business models and market designs evolve, affecting power-grid operation and power-grid frequency. Problems raised by this ongoing transition are increasingly addressed by transdisciplinary research approaches, ranging from purely mathematical modelling to applied case studies. These approaches require a stochastic description of consumer behaviour, fluctuations by renewables, market rules, and how they influence the stability of the power-grid frequency. Here, we introduce an easy-to-use, data-driven, stochastic model for the power-grid frequency and demonstrate how it reproduces key characteristics of the observed statistics of the Continental European and British power grids. Using data analysis tools and a Fokker-Planck approach, we estimate parameters of our deterministic and stochastic model. We offer executable code and guidelines on how to use the model on any power grid for various mathematical or engineering applications.

Keywords

• Stochastic modelling
• power-grid frequency
• swing equation
• control systems
• parameter estimation
• Fokker–Planck equation