Analysis of SPI index trend variations in the United Kingdom - A cluster-based and bayesian ensemble algorithms approach

Abstract

Study region: United Kingdom (UK). Study focus: A regional investigation of the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) trends and abrupt changes in the UK has been carried out. The K-means algorithm was employed to partition the study area into six homogeneous regions, each distinguished by specific SPI characteristics. Subsequently, the seasonal Mann-Kendall (MK) test and the Bayesian Changepoint Detection and Time Series Decomposition (BEAST) algorithm were used to evaluate the overall trends for each cluster and SPI time scale, as well as to identify abrupt changes in trend and seasonality along the SPI time series, respectively. New hydrological insights for the region: The seasonal MK test revealed statistically significant increasing SPI trends for all clusters, except for the southeastern area of the UK, where decreasing, but not statistically significant, SPI trends were observed. Moreover, despite a scenario suggesting an increasingly humid UK, the BEAST analysis allowed the detection of decreasing abrupt changes in trends, resulting in sudden changes from wet to dry conditions, that cannot be identified using the MK test. Alongside these, the BEAST analysis has also revealed positive abrupt changes in trends across all UK, as well as positive or negative variations in seasonality, which are followed by longer or shorter wet or dry periods, respectively. Overall, the study approach provides a detailed picture of the SPI trends and abrupt changes, in light of the impact of climate change on the different areas of the UK.

Keywords

• Drought
• SPI
• Clustering
• Changepoint detection
• United Kingdom