Apartment project risk assessment under market uncertainty; a case study in Wonokromo, Surabaya

Abstract

Apartment projects are developed based on a set of assumptions; therefore they have to face risks and uncertainties. One of the most important risks is the uncertainty of the market. The economic condition that causes market slow-down in Indonesia recently has led to some certain of stagnation of apartment development, of which impacts remain for years. In such condition, it is necessary to understand how to measure risks before making a decision. The objective of this paper is to assess risk in apartment project under market uncertainty, using quantitative tools selected from the theory associated with the investment decision. The parameters are market risks and operating risks. Market risk is subdivided into capital market risk(CMr), valuation risk (Vr) and market growth rate risk (MGRr), while real estate operating risk is subdivided into operating risk (Or), development risk (Dr), leasing risk (Lr), leasehold risk (LHr) and leverage risk (LVr). The riskiness values are categorized into three classes: conservative, moderate and aggressive. A leased apartment development project in Wonokromo, Surabaya was selected as a case study. The project covered 8,773 square meters of land and consisted of one tower with total 31,829 square meters gross floor area, equipped with parking lots and amenities. The study found out that The CMr was 36%, Vr was 13 %, MGRr was 50%, Or was 112%, Dr was 47%, Lr was 215%, LHr was 61% and LVr was 156%. Although the overall project risk values lie in conservative category, since the level of leasing risk is in aggresive range, more comprehensive investigation should be carried out during a decision-making to reduce the negative impact of risks.