Analyzing climate indices to predict the monthly rainfall in an agricultural region of the northern Andes (Caldas, Colombia)

Abstract

Several authors have established that different indicators which characterize oceanic and atmospheric phenomena overseas, are related to the behavior of weather and climate in the Colombian Andean region. However, the application of this knowledge is almost the uncertainty represented by the scarce meteorological information available to explain event or climate anomalies of low frequency and the established conception that the El Niño Oceanic Index (ONI) is the only index capable of describing the variation in the values of elements of climate on a monthly scale. This paper aims toreduce the above-mentioned uncertainties by means of a comparative study study to determine the spatio-temporal suitability of different climate indicator and modulators in an agricultural region in the northern Andes. The results show a better correspondence between the region’s precipitation and the figures that characterize El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which are up to three month behind schedule. However, ONI is not always the best predictor of monthly rainfall. Therefore, one might think that some other indices could be successfully used to forecast rainfall for most months in the northern Andes agricultural areas.