A Preliminary Assessment of the Impact of Assimilating Satellite Soil Moisture Data Products on NCEP Global Forecast System

Abstract

It is well documented that soil moisture has a strong impact on precipitation forecasts of numerical weather prediction models. Several microwave satellite soil moisture retrieval data products have also been available for applications. However, these observational data products have not been employed in any operational numerical weather or climate prediction models. In this study, a preliminary test of assimilating satellite soil moisture data products from the NOAA-NESDIS Soil Moisture Operational Product System (SMOPS) into the NOAA-NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS) is conducted. Using the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) introduced in recent year publications and implemented in the GFS, the multiple satellite blended daily global soil moisture data from SMOPS for the month of April 2012 are assimilated into the GFS. The forecasts of surface variables, anomaly correlations of isobar heights, and precipitation forecast skills of the GFS with and without the soil moisture data assimilation are assessed. The surface and deep layer soil moisture estimates of the GFS after the satellite soil moisture assimilation are found to have slightly better agreement with the ground soil moisture measurements at dozens of sites across the continental United States (CONUS). Forecasts of surface humidity and air temperature, 500 hPa height anomaly correlations, and the precipitation forecast skill demonstrated certain level of improvements after the soil moisture assimilation against those without the soil moisture assimilation. However, the methodology for the soil moisture data assimilation into operational GFS runs still requires further development efforts and tests.