BMC Women's Health (Oct 2023)

Development and validation of a predictive model of abnormal uterine bleeding associated with ovulatory dysfunction: a case-control study

  • Yue Zhang,
  • Zhou Luo,
  • Yingxian Jia,
  • Yunxiu Zhao,
  • Yizhou Huang,
  • Fei Ruan,
  • Qian Ying,
  • Linjuan Ma,
  • Jie Luo,
  • Jianhong Zhou

DOI
https://doi.org/10.1186/s12905-023-02589-5
Journal volume & issue
Vol. 23, no. 1
pp. 1 – 9

Abstract

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Abstract Background Abnormal uterine bleeding associated with ovulatory dysfunction (AUB-O) is a typical gynecological disease that can affect women of various ages. Being able to identify women at risk of AUB-O could allow physicians to take timely action. This study aimed to identify the influencing factors of AUB-O in Chinese women, and then develop and validate a predictive model. Methods In this multicenter case–control study, 391 women with AUB-O and 838 controls who came from nine hospitals in Zhejiang province were recruited between April 2019 and January 2022. All the participants completed a structured questionnaire including general characteristics, lifestyle and habits, menstrual and reproductive history, and previous diseases. The predictive model was developed on a group of 822 women and validated on a group of 407 women. Logistic regression was adopted to investigate the influencing factors and develop the model, and validation was then performed. Results The independent predictive factors of AUB-O were age (OR 1.073, 95% CI 1.046—1.102, P 1, OR 0.450, 95% CI 0.247—0.822, P = 0.009), and history of ovarian cyst (OR 1.880, 95% CI 1.305—2.710, P < 0.001). The predictive ability (area under the curve) in the development group was 0.77 (95% CI 0.74—0.81), while in the validation group it was 0.73 (95% CI 0.67—0.79). The calibration curve was in high coincidence with the standard curve in the development group, and similar to the validation group. A tool for AUB-O risk calculation was created. Conclusions Nine influencing factors and a predictive model were proposed in this study, which could identify women who are at high risk of developing AUB-O. This finding highlights the importance of early screening and the lifelong management of ovulatory disorders for women.

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