Exploring spatial feedbacks between adaptation policies and internal migration patterns due to sea-level rise

Abstract

Abstract Climate change-induced sea-level rise will lead to an increase in internal migration, whose intensity and spatial patterns will depend on the amount of sea-level rise; future socioeconomic development; and adaptation strategies pursued to reduce exposure and vulnerability to sea-level rise. To explore spatial feedbacks between these drivers, we combine sea-level rise projections, socioeconomic projections, and assumptions on adaptation policies in a spatially-explicit model (‘CONCLUDE’). Using the Mediterranean region as a case study, we find up to 20 million sea-level rise-related internal migrants by 2100 if no adaptation policies are implemented, with approximately three times higher migration in southern and eastern Mediterranean countries compared to northern Mediterranean countries. We show that adaptation policies can reduce the number of internal migrants by a factor of 1.4 to 9, depending on the type of strategies pursued; the implementation of hard protection measures may even lead to migration towards protected coastlines. Overall, spatial migration patterns are robust across all scenarios, with out-migration from a narrow coastal strip and in-migration widely spread across urban settings. However, the type of migration (e.g. proactive/reactive, managed/autonomous) depends on future socioeconomic developments that drive adaptive capacity, calling for decision-making that goes well beyond coastal issues.