Prioritizing Amazon Forest conservation: Assessing potential biomass under climate change

Abstract

This study aims to identify the capacity of intact forests to maintain Above Ground Biomass (AGB) under new climate conditions. Using a predictive approach under different climate scenarios (SSP1–2.6 and SSP5–8.5), and considering the mean of General Circulation Models (GCMs) for the period (2021–2040), it was revealed that the regions with the greatest capacity for AGB in the optimistic scenario are concentrated in the northwest and southeast regions, covering the basins of the Negro, Xingu and Tapajós rivers. In the SSP5–8.5 scenario, although potential AGB gains are concentrated in the same regions, the spatial distribution is more restricted and dispersed. Indigenous Landsemerge as areas with the greatest potential AGB gains in both climate scenarios. However, these predictions do not include the impact of extreme climate events, such as storms, severe droughts, and wildfires, which could lead to an underestimation of actual biomass variations.

Keywords

• CMIP6 Scenarios
• Forest Biomass
• Amazon Forest biome
• Indigenous Land
• Protected Areas