Past and future land-use/land-cover change trends and its potential drivers in Koore’s agricultural landscape, Southern Ethiopia

Abstract

Wise-use of land resources determines sustainability of environment and human welfare. But, the ongoing land-use change constrains environmental sustainability. Thus, this study aims to quantify past and future land-use change trend with its associated drivers in Koore’s agricultural landscape of Southern Ethiopia. To quantify the change trends, geospatial tools were applied. A CA–Markov model was used to predict land-use changes. Relative Importance Index was used to identify major drivers of the change. The result of the study showed agroforestry, built-up and cultivation rise by 192%, 152% and 18% at the expense of natural environment. Population growth and agricultural expansion are among the leading land-use change drivers. CA–Markov model revealed a continued increment of anthropogenically modified land-use classes which adversely affect the sustainability of the landscape. Information on spatiotemporal dynamics has been confirmed as effectual measure for nature conservation, agriculture, urban planners, and policymakers to plan sustainable development actions.

Keywords

• agricultural landscape
• geospatial
• koore
• land-use/land-cover
• modeling