Oxford University Clinical Research Unit, Wellcome Trust Asia Program, Ho Chi Minh City, Viet Nam; Biological Science Department, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, United States
Tran Thi Nhu Thao
Oxford University Clinical Research Unit, Wellcome Trust Asia Program, Ho Chi Minh City, Viet Nam; Virology Department, Institute of Virology and Immunology, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
Nguyen Manh Duy
Oxford University Clinical Research Unit, Wellcome Trust Asia Program, Ho Chi Minh City, Viet Nam
Oxford University Clinical Research Unit, Wellcome Trust Asia Program, Ho Chi Minh City, Viet Nam; Centre for Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom; Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
Japanese encephalitis (JE) is a mosquito-borne disease, known for its high mortality and disability rate among symptomatic cases. Many effective vaccines are available for JE, and the use of a recently developed and inexpensive vaccine, SA 14-14-2, has been increasing over the recent years particularly with Gavi support. Estimates of the local burden and the past impact of vaccination are therefore increasingly needed, but difficult due to the limitations of JE surveillance. In this study, we implemented a mathematical modelling method (catalytic model) combined with age-stratifed case data from our systematic review which can overcome some of these limitations. We estimate in 2015 JEV infections caused 100,308 JE cases (95% CI: 61,720–157,522) and 25,125 deaths (95% CI: 14,550–46,031) globally, and that between 2000 and 2015 307,774 JE cases (95% CI: 167,442–509,583) were averted due to vaccination globally. Our results highlight areas that could have the greatest benefit from starting vaccination or from scaling up existing programs and will be of use to support local and international policymakers in making vaccine allocation decisions.
