PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases (Apr 2014)

Air travel is associated with intracontinental spread of dengue virus serotypes 1-3 in Brazil.

  • Marcio R T Nunes,
  • Gustavo Palacios,
  • Nuno Rodrigues Faria,
  • Edivaldo Costa Sousa,
  • Jamilla A Pantoja,
  • Sueli G Rodrigues,
  • Valéria L Carvalho,
  • Daniele B A Medeiros,
  • Nazir Savji,
  • Guy Baele,
  • Marc A Suchard,
  • Philippe Lemey,
  • Pedro F C Vasconcelos,
  • W Ian Lipkin

DOI
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0002769
Journal volume & issue
Vol. 8, no. 4
p. e2769

Abstract

Read online

Dengue virus and its four serotypes (DENV-1 to DENV-4) infect 390 million people and are implicated in at least 25,000 deaths annually, with the largest disease burden in tropical and subtropical regions. We investigated the spatial dynamics of DENV-1, DENV-2 and DENV-3 in Brazil by applying a statistical framework to complete genome sequences. For all three serotypes, we estimated that the introduction of new lineages occurred within 7 to 10-year intervals. New lineages were most likely to be imported from the Caribbean region to the North and Northeast regions of Brazil, and then to disperse at a rate of approximately 0.5 km/day. Joint statistical analysis of evolutionary, epidemiological and ecological data indicates that aerial transportation of humans and/or vector mosquitoes, rather than Aedes aegypti infestation rates or geographical distances, determine dengue virus spread in Brazil.