Supply of Key Metals for China’s New Energy Industries under the Carbon Peaking and Carbon Neutrality Goals

Abstract

New energy industries, such as wind and photovoltaic (PV) power generation, are key to supporting the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals of China. The installed capacity of wind and PV power in China is the largest worldwide; therefore, it is necessary to secure the supply of key metal materials and conduct a more accurate management of emerging solid wastes. This study sets different development scenarios based on the historical data and planning objectives of wind and PV power industries of China. It assesses the demand, waste, and supply of key metals in China’s new energy industry using a life distribution model of wind and PV power generation equipment, and focuses on identifying the supply pressure of silver, copper, gallium, silver, steel, and neodymium,thereby providing a basic support for realizing the green and low-carbon development of the energy industry by 2060. In the baseline scenario, the decommissioned volume of the wind and PV power generation industries will reach 4.6 GW and 28.3 GW in 2035,respectively; and the total decommissioned volume (by mass) of both wind and PV power generation equipment will reach 2.54 ×106 t and 1.048 ×107 t in 2035 and 2060, respectively. In terms of the supply of key metals for the new energy industry during 2030‒2060,iron and steel have a low supply risk (≤5%), neodymium has a medium-high supply risk (25%‒50%), copper and silver have a high supply risk (50%‒100%), and the supply of gallium and indium are at an extremely high risk owing to their excessive peak demand.To improve the security and diversity of the supply chain of the new energy industry, it is necessary to ensure the sustainable supply of metal mineral resources and promote material recycling and efficient use. Furthermore, we propose the following recommendations:(1) treating decommissioned equipment for wind and PV power generation as waste electrical and electronic products, (2) incorporating wind and PV power generation enterprises into the Catalogue of Classified Management of Pollutant Discharge Permits for Stationary Pollution Sources, (3) improving the distributed new-energy solid-waste recycling system, and (4) developing recycling technologies for emerging solid wastes.

Keywords

• emerging solid waste
• wind turbines
• photovoltaic modules
• key metal
• supply risk