Spatial modeling for COVID-19 analysis: An Indian case study

Abstract

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak in India from January 31, 2020, onwards to June 15, 2020, has reached confirmed cases over 3,32,424 that are being reported. The aim of this study is to predict and explore the spatial distribution of COVID-19 data of India using three models – geographical weighted regression (GWR), generalized linear regression (GLR), and ordinary least square (OLS). In this paper, the swift rise in COVID-19 cases is experiential after the lockdown period. This is explored using ArcGIS on the confirmed case of June 15, 2020, as the response with the explanatory of COVID-19 cases, i.e March 15, 2020, April 7, April 12, May 12, and June 1, 2020. The confirmed cases of the dataset is classified into three cases ie. case-1: June 15, 2020, vs March 15 and April 7, 2020; case-2: June 15, 2020 vs April 12, May 12 and June 1, 2020; and case-3: June 15, 2020 Vs all dates mentioned in discussion Hence, the prediction using GWR gave the much closer values for June 16, 2020. AICc of GWR (618.9038) was found to have the minimum value over GLR and OLS models. The day-wise increase and samples tested per day in twelve different states is analyzed using STATA. The number of testing varies with states to states, depending on the population and testing labs available. The percentage for each slope is achieved as m1 (-5.714 %), m2 (39.393%), m3 (6.521%) and m4 (46.938%).

Keywords

• covid-19
• gis
• spatial data
• spatial models
• testing samples