Prediction of the dynamic changes of water table based on the quantitative theory type I in the Piedmont Plain of the Taihang Mountains

Abstract

Abstract Statistical analysis was conducted on groundwater table data in the Ji Yuan Basin from 2006 to 2018, revealing a continuous downward trend in the groundwater table with imminent depletion of shallow groundwater resources. To ensure the sustainable development of groundwater resources in the area, a quantitative model of groundwater table was successfully constructed using the principles of the Quantitative Theory Type I. This model included seven benchmark variables: rainfall, evaporation, exploitation, hydraulic conductivity, specific yield, lithology of the vadose zone, and land-use type. These factors are key contributors to the decline in groundwater levels in the study area. The model yielded an average residual value of 0.35 m and an adjusted R2 of 0.789, indicating that it can explain 78.9% of the benchmark variables with acceptable accuracy. Additionally, the model successfully simulated four types of groundwater dynamics, with the best results obtained for the rainfall infiltration-exploitation-evaporation type. This study’s findings suggest that the model can be utilized to predict the dynamic characteristics of the groundwater table and guide groundwater extraction activities.

Keywords

• Statistical modeling
• Groundwater table
• Groundwater monitoring
• Dynamic simulation