Estimates of incidence rate of listeriosis in Beijing based on Bayesian model

Abstract

ObjectiveTo provide scientific evidence for the prevention and control of listeriosis， the incidence of listeriosis in Beijing from 2017 to 2019 was estimated.MethodsBased on the sentinel listeriosis surveillance in Beijing from 2017 to 2019， the number of hospital admissions and listeriosis cases reported from 10 secondary or above comprehensive hospitals and 7 maternity hospitals in 8 districts were collected in from 2017 to 2019. The incidence rate of listeriosis in Beijing among the whole population and pregnant women were estimated by Bayesian method.ResultsThe incidence rate of listeriosis in Beijing from 2017 to 2019 among the whole population estimated by Bayesian method was 0.25/100 000 （95% CI： 0.17-0.33）， with 53 （95% CI： 38-71） cases annually. The incidence rate among pregnant women was 12.89/100 000（95% CI： 9.03-17.39）， which was about 52 times of the whole population. The annual number of pregnancy-associated cases was 31 （95% CI： 20-43） ， accounting for 58% of the cases among whole population.ConclusionFrom 2017 to 2019， the incidence rate of listeriosis among the whole population in Beijing was close to other countries， indicating that more attention should be paid to the health education and disease surveillance. Listeriosis among pregnancy in Beijing had a higher incidence than the world average， suggesting that further analysis of the causes should be carried out and comprehensive intervention strategies targeted to pregnant populations are urgently needed.

Keywords

• listeriosis
• incidence rate
• bayesian model