COVSIM: A stochastic agent-based COVID-19 SIMulation model for North Carolina

Abstract

We document the evolution and use of the stochastic agent-based COVID-19 simulation model (COVSIM) to study the impact of population behaviors and public health policy on disease spread within age, race/ethnicity, and urbanicity subpopulations in North Carolina. We detail the methodologies used to model the complexities of COVID-19, including multiple agent attributes (i.e., age, race/ethnicity, high-risk medical status), census tract-level interaction network, disease state network, agent behavior (i.e., masking, pharmaceutical intervention (PI) uptake, quarantine, mobility), and variants. We describe its uses outside of the COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub (CSMH), which has focused on the interplay of nonpharmaceutical and pharmaceutical interventions, equitability of vaccine distribution, and supporting local county decision-makers in North Carolina. This work has led to multiple publications and meetings with a variety of local stakeholders. When COVSIM joined the CSMH in January 2022, we found it was a sustainable way to support new COVID-19 challenges and allowed the group to focus on broader scientific questions. The CSMH has informed adaptions to our modeling approach, including redesigning our high-performance computing implementation.

Keywords

• COVID-19 scenario modeling hub
• Stochastic agent-based simulation
• Health equity
• Local public health decision making
• Infectious disease modeling