Future Seasonal Changes in Extreme Precipitation Scale With Changes in the Mean

Abstract

Abstract Atmospheric warming results in an intensification of annual precipitation over the globe but large uncertainties remain regionally and at seasonal scales, especially for extremes. Using 29 models from the Sixth Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), we investigate future seasonal changes in extreme precipitation (under the scenario SSP5‐8.5) and how it compares to changes in mean precipitation. Over land, we find a strong intensification of the wettest day in all seasons over the mid and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere and over India during the monsoon. Extreme intensity decreases in the subtropics for some seasons, including over large regions around the Mediterranean basin and Southern Africa, and these drying patterns are not apparent in annual results. The key finding is that the CMIP6 multi‐model mean always shows that seasonal changes in mean and extreme precipitation align where there is high model agreement. That is, in all seasons by the end of the 21st century, extremes intensify in regions where mean precipitation increases and decline where mean precipitation decreases. This should not hide inherent uncertainties associated, namely the large range of changes intensity that can be found across the models, and an important modulation of the changes by internal variability. Yet, this study shows that the multi‐model mean shows broad consistency such that future seasonal changes in mean precipitation could be used to infer future changes in extremes (and vice versa), thus providing valuable information for risk planning and mitigation strategies.

Keywords

• future changes in precipitation extremes
• CMIP6 models
• regional changes in precipitation
• relevant projections for impact