From Marginal Lands to Biofuel Bounty: Predicting the Distribution of Oilseed Crop <i>Idesia polycarpa</i> in Southern China’s Karst Ecosystem

Abstract

With the global energy crisis and the decline of fossil fuel resources, biofuels are gaining attention as alternative energy sources. China, as a major developing country, has long depended on coal and is now looking to biofuels to diversify its energy structure and ensure sustainable development. However, due to its large population and limited arable land, it cannot widely use corn or sugarcane as raw materials for bioenergy. Instead, the Chinese government encourages the planting of non-food crops on marginal lands to safeguard food security and support the biofuel sector. The Southern China Karst Region, with its typical karst landscape and fragile ecological environment, offers a wealth of potential marginal land resources that are suitable for planting non-food energy crops. This area is also one of the most impoverished rural regions in China, confronting a variety of challenges, such as harsh natural conditions, scarcity of land, and ecological deterioration. Idesia polycarpa, as a fast-growing tree species that is drought-tolerant and can thrive in poor soil, is well adapted to the karst region and has important value for ecological restoration and biodiesel production. By integrating 19 bioclimatic variables and karst landform data, our analysis reveals that the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model surpasses the Random Forest (RF) model in predictive accuracy for Idesia polycarpa’s distribution. The karst areas of Sichuan, Chongqing, Hubei, Hunan, and Guizhou provinces are identified as highly suitable for the species, aligning with regions of ecological vulnerability and poverty. This research provides critical insights into the strategic cultivation of Idesia polycarpa, contributing to ecological restoration, local economic development, and the advancement of China’s biofuel industry.

Keywords

• species distribution models (SDMs)
• maximum entropy (MaxEnt)
• random forest (RF)
• contiguous poverty areas
• crop simulation modeling