Time trends in pediatric fractures in a Swedish city from 1950 to 2016

Abstract

Background and purpose — As previous studies indicate time trends in pediatric fracture incidence, we followed the incidence in a Swedish city between 1950 and 2016. Patients and methods — Malmö city, Sweden had 322,574 inhabitants in 2015. We used diagnosis registry, charts, and radiographs of the only city hospital to classify fractures in individuals < 16 years in 2014–2016, and compared these with data from 1950–2006. We used joinpoint regression to analyze time trends and present results as mean annual percentage changes (APC). Differences between periods are described as incident rate ratios (IRR). To describe uncertainty, 95% confidence intervals (CI) are used. Results — During 2014–2016 the pediatric fracture incidence was 1,786 per 105 person-years (boys 2,135 and girls 1,423). From 1950 onwards age-adjusted fracture incidence increased until 1979 in both boys (APC +1.5%, CI 1.2–1.8) and girls (APC +1.6%, CI 0.8–2.5). The incidence remained stable from 1979 to 2016 (APC in boys 0.0%, CI –0.3 to 0.3 and in girls –0.2%, CI –1.1 to 0.7). Age-adjusted incidence 2014–2016 was higher than 2005–2006 in girls (IRR 1.1, CI 1.03–1.3), but not in boys (IRR 1.0, CI 0.9–1.1). Interpretation — Fracture incidence was in girls higher in 2014–2016 than in 2005–2006. However, only with more than 2 measuring points are meaningful trend analyses possible. When we analyzed the period 1950–2016 with 17 measuring points and joinpoint regression, we found that fracture incidence increased in both sexes until 1979 but has thereafter been stable.