Continuous Time Random Walk with Correlated Waiting Times. The Crucial Role of Inter-Trade Times in Volatility Clustering

Abstract

In many physical, social, and economic phenomena, we observe changes in a studied quantity only in discrete, irregularly distributed points in time. The stochastic process usually applied to describe this kind of variable is the continuous-time random walk (CTRW). Despite the popularity of these types of stochastic processes and strong empirical motivation, models with a long-term memory within the sequence of time intervals between observations are rare in the physics literature. Here, we fill this gap by introducing a new family of CTRWs. The memory is introduced to the model by assuming that many consecutive time intervals can be the same. Surprisingly, in this process we can observe a slowly decaying nonlinear autocorrelation function without a fat-tailed distribution of time intervals. Our model, applied to high-frequency stock market data, can successfully describe the slope of decay of the nonlinear autocorrelation function of stock market returns. We achieve this result without imposing any dependence between consecutive price changes. This proves the crucial role of inter-event times in the volatility clustering phenomenon observed in all stock markets.

Keywords

• continuous time random walk
• intertrade times
• volatility clustering