Changing epidemiology of COVID-19

Abstract

Background: We analyzed the epidemiology of COVID-19 in Regensburg after the first wave ended in June 2020 and compared it with patients’ characteristics and symptoms in late summer/early autumn 2020.Methods: Retrospective analysis of epidemiological data from Regensburg (city/county) on age and initial symptoms as reported during case investigation for containment. Observed periods: March 7, 2020 to June 6, 2020 and August 12, 2020 to October 9, 2020.Results: The proportion of asymptomatic persons who tested positive for SARS-COV-2 in the second period was 55% (286 of 520 cases), whereas during the first wave from March to June 2020 this percentage was 14.4% (169 of 1,170 cases). A comparison of typical symptoms shows that the most common symptoms of COVID-19 in the first wave (cough, fever and generally feeling ill) were less often reported in the second period: cough 14% vs. 42%, fever 17% vs. 38%, general signs of illness 14% vs. 22% in the second vs. first period, respectively overall cases were younger in the second period, the median age of asymptomatic cases was comparable in both periods. The case fatality rate for the first period was 2.1%, in the second it was 0.2%. Discussion: The epidemiological situation in the second period is different from that during the first wave. We observed a considerable proportion of questionable cases in August/September 2020 (asymptomatic cases, high ct values, often only detection of one gene). False positive cases/non-contagious cases have to be taken into account for this period. On-demand or free-of-charge testing for asymptomatic persons will lower the positive predictive value of tests and place a high burden on finite capacities.

Keywords

• covid-19
• epidemiology
• pcr
• asymptomatic cases
• testing strategies