A Predictive Study of Electricity Consumption Fluctuations Using the Autoregressive-Moving-Average Models: Wilaya of Medea as a Case Study (2011-2017)

Abstract

The study aims to model the consumption of electricity in the Wilaya “Town” of Medea by using the autoregressive–moving-average models for the period from January 2011 to December 2017, which includes 84 views and then the prediction of consumption in a short term, the study found that the electricity consumed follows the model (4.0) ASARMA. In a form of a multiplicative model of Increasing general trend.

Keywords

• electricity consumption
• autoregressive models
• moving-average models
• short term prediction