Simulating glacier mass balance in the cross-border Poiqu/Bhotekoshi Basin, China and Nepal

Abstract

To assess the change of glacier mass balance (GMB) in the Poiqu/Bhotekoshi basin in the context of global warming, this study applied a conceptual Hydrologiska Bryans Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV) hydrological model to quantify the GMB in the area. The HBV model was trained and validated based on in-situ hydro meteorological data from 10 weather stations in the basin. The dataset, which consists of the daily observations for both rainfall and air temperature, was partitioned into two decades, 1988–1998 and 1999–2008 for calibration and validation, respectively. The calibrated model was adopted to restore the daily runoff depth and then estimate the annual changes of GMB in Poiqu/Bhotekoshi basin over the period of 1988–2008. Results show that the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (Reff) of the daily runoff depth simulation after the runoff calibration process was above 0.802. Therefore, the simulated values of the HBV model are reliable and can be used to estimate the GMB of Himalayan cross-border glacial mountain basins with huge elevation difference, and provide scientific data support for water resources management. Furthermore, the result demonstrated a slow year-by-year rise of snow water equivalent because of global warming, and it highly correlates with the soil moisture, the spring temperature and the summer precipitation. HIGHLIGHTS The HBV model had a better simulation effect on the annual daily runoff depth.; The HBV model parameter combination was obtained through calibration.; The precipitation increase was found to have a contribution rate of 38% to runoff.; Glacial melting caused by temperature had a contribution rate of 62% to runoff increase.;

Keywords

• conceptual hydrological model
• cross-border rivers
• glacier mass balance
• poiqu/bhotekoshi basin
• runoff depth