Neural network model for forecasting the development of road transport enterprises in a non-stationarity economy

Abstract

The paper presents the results of the study of the influence of factors on the development indicators of road transport enterprises, describes the development indicators and their dynamics. On the basis of the theoretical foundations of non-stationarity, an interpretation of the concept of non-stationarity of the development of the economy and the industry market is proposed. On the basis of the crisis development scale developed by the author, the results of the cluster analysis of enterprises in the sample and the data of statistical processing of effective performance indicators, the forecast of the crisis development of road transport enterprises of Saint - Petersburg in the transport services market of the region is made using neural network modeling. With the help of the constructed neural network model of the dependence of the degree of crisis on the most significant indicators, it is possible to predict the development of crisis situations, and this indicates the possibility of predicting the non-stationarity development of road transport enterprises and the economy as a whole.