Projection of future malaria prevalence in the upper river region of The Gambia

Abstract

Abstract Background This work investigated the future (2021–2050) impact of Climate Change on Malaria Prevalence in the Upper River Region of The Gambia under two representative concentration pathways, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, comparing it with the observed evaluation period of 2011–2022. Methods The observed climatic variable data used was obtained from the Department of Water Resources and the corresponding malaria cases from the archive of the primary Health database, Banjul, The Gambia. Projected monthly temperature, precipitation, and relative humidity were downloaded from the coordinated Regional downscaling experiment (CORDEX) stimulation of the Rossby Centre Regional Atmospheric regional climate (RCA4). The dataset spans the decades from 2021 to 2050, providing insight into future climatic and epidemiological trends. Gradient Boost Machine Learning algorithm was utilized for the malaria projection both in the population below 5 and above five years. Results The result revealed an increase in malaria incidence under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climatic scenarios for both age categories with a clear indication in the population above five years. Discussion and conclusion The result pictures how climate change will impact malaria under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios in the region and also clearly reveals that the upper river region of the Gambia population is at risk of malaria infection, thus, a strategic and robust intervention scheme is highly solicited.

Keywords

• Malaria prevalence
• Climate change
• Machine learning
• RCP scenarios
• Gambia