PLoS ONE (Jan 2014)

Predictors of exacerbations in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease--results from the Bergen COPD cohort study.

  • Gunnar R Husebø,
  • Per S Bakke,
  • Marianne Aanerud,
  • Jon A Hardie,
  • Thor Ueland,
  • Rune Grønseth,
  • Louise J P Persson,
  • Pål Aukrust,
  • Tomas M Eagan

DOI
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0109721
Journal volume & issue
Vol. 9, no. 10
p. e109721

Abstract

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COPD exacerbations accelerate disease progression.To examine if COPD characteristics and systemic inflammatory markers predict the risk for acute COPD exacerbation (AECOPD) frequency and duration.403 COPD patients, GOLD stage II-IV, aged 44-76 years were included in the Bergen COPD Cohort Study in 2006/07, and followed for 3 years. Examined baseline predictors were sex, age, body composition, smoking, AECOPD the last year, GOLD stage, Charlson comorbidity score (CCS), hypoxemia (PaO21 AECOPD last year before baseline [1.65 (1.24-2.21)], GOLD III [1.36 (1.07-1.74)], GOLD IV [2.90 (1.98-4.25)], chronic cough [1.64 (1.30-2.06)] and use of inhaled steroids [1.57 (1.21-2.05)]. For AECOPD duration more than three weeks, significant predictors after adjustment were: hypoxemia [0.60 (0.39-0.92)], years since inclusion [1.19 (1.03-1.37)], AECOPD severity; moderate [OR 1.58 (1.14-2.18)] and severe [2.34 (1.58-3.49)], season; winter [1.51 (1.08-2.12)], spring [1.45 (1.02-2.05)] and sTNF-R1 per SD increase [1.16 (1.00-1.35)].Several COPD characteristics were independent predictors of both AECOPD frequency and duration.