Финансы: теория и практика (Mar 2023)
Ups and Downs of Business Activity in the Waves of Crises, the Coronavirus Pandemic and Unprecedented Western Sanctions
Abstract
Subject of article - the dynamics of the integrated Business Activity Index of the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences in 10 main areas of the national economy and the Index of output of goods and services by basic types of economic activity of Rosstat (Rosstat Index) from 2018 to July 2022 inclusive. Growth factors and a list of key macro indicators that determine the level of business activity in the relevant sectors of the economy, as well as the results of calculating the weights of these sectors, are considered.The aim of the article is to substantiate the advantages of the methodology for constructing the IE RAS Index, which includes development indicators of 10 areas of the national economy, in comparison with the Rosstat Index. Theoretical studies are based on practical calculations performed on the basis of official statistical reporting, and a comparative analysis of the results with the dynamics of the Rosstat Index. Research period: post-crisis 2018–2019, pandemic and post-pandemic 2020–2021 and initial stage of the mobilization period for the economy - January-July 2022. To calculate the IE RAS Index, the method of construction of integral estimates of macroeconomic dynamics, correlation analysis, as well as a matrix of coefficients of pair correlation for determination of index weights are used, which is a convincing justification of scientific novelty of the proposed methodology of construction and practical use of the IE RAS Index. Based on a comparative analysis of the dynamics of the indices, it was found that the maximum drop in the IE RAS Index and the Rosstat Index was observed in 2020, and the maximum growth was observed in the post-pandemic 2021. Moreover, according to the IE RAS methodology, larger parameters and earlier dates for the start of decline and growth of business activity in comparison with the Rosstat Index were recorded. As a result, new convincing evidence of the advantages of the IE RAS Index was obtained, the main of which is a more reliable and accurate determination of the critical moments of a change in the business activity trend and, accordingly, the timing of the onset and overcoming of crisis processes in socio-economic development. The authors conclude that, in the new geopolitical reality, it is necessary to include the IE RAS Index as a target indicator for the country’s ability to secure state sovereignty.
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