Fluctuations in extreme temperatures in northern Morocco and the impact of climate change: Contribution of the Regional Climate Model (RegCM)

Abstract

In this study, we use the RegCM4.6 regional climate model to simulate extreme air temperatures in northern Morocco, with a focus on the Tangier-Tetouan-Al Hoceima (TTA) region. In pursuit of this, we evaluate its performance by comparing its simulations with CRU observational data and HadGEM2-ES historical simulations over 35 years for the purpose of predicting future temperature evolution by the end of the century in the region using the validated RegCM4.6 model. The results show a slight underestimation of temperatures compared to observations, with a preference for the RegCM4.6 model over HadGEM2-ES. Projections indicate a mean temperature increase of 2°C (RCP4.5) to 4.62°C (RCP8.5) by 2099, highlighting the need for regional adaptation strategies.