Статистика и экономика (Mar 2024)
Statistical Study of the Russian Financial System under Sanctions
Abstract
Purpose of the study. The imposition of sanctions on the financial sector and suspending relations with international financial institutions in 2022 has significantly affected the external conditions for the development of the domestic financial sector, caused an increase in geopolitical tensions and instability in the Russian currency market. It is necessary to study and understand the processes currently taking place in the financial market. The article is devoted to the statistical assessment of the impact of sanctions on the Russian financial system in 2022 and 2023. The purpose of research paper is to identify the situation on the currency, money and credit, debt market, as well as in the budgetary sphere, to assess the relationship between the dynamics of key financial indexes in the sanctions crisis. Materials and methods. The sources of information for the calculations were official data from the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation, the Bank of Russia, the provider of data on financial markets Cbonds and PJSC “Moscow Exchange”. The article used statistical methods of analysis: variations, dynamics, hypothesis testing. Determination of anomalous levels of the time series was carried out using the Irwin method. Differences in average federal budget indexes were assessed using the Wilcoxon Matched Pairs Test. The dependence of the dynamics of the main financial indexes was assessed on the basis of time series correlation. Results. The study allowed us to conclude that 2022 was a critical year for the Russian financial system. All its sectors were affected by sanctions restrictions. The weakening of the national currency was revealed in the currency market, and it was found that the dollar exchange rate in 2023 was abnormally high for the period from 2000 to 2023. The budget sector hasdemonstrated stability. The results of the study showed that the sanctions pressure did not affect the revenue part of the federal budget. However, the average monthly expenditure of the federal budget increased statistically significantly by almost three times in 2022. The monetary market reacted with an excessive supply of money. The increase in the money supply has reached its highest value in the last 10 years. The money supply growth was accompanied by changes in its structure. The banking sector showed the development of the credit growth trend. The debt market reacted with a rapid growth of corporate bonds volume, the highest for the last 10 years. And the market of federal loan bonds was characterized by a rapid reduction in the volume of federal loan bonds owned by non-residents and a decrease in the share of non-residents. The interrelation between the dynamics of the US dollar exchange rate and the volume of corporate lending associated with the conversion of loans in US dollars and euros into yuan was revealed. Direct interrelation was observed in the dynamics of money supply and the volume of corporate bonds and federal loan bonds market. Conclusion. The financial system is adapting to new circumstances. The transformation of methods and tools of financial regulation accompany this process. This process requires studying and understanding changes in the composition, dynamics, and interconnection of the structural elements of the financial system, as well as finding ways for its development.
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