Modifications to Snow-Melting and Flooding Processes in the Hydrological Model—A Case Study in Issyk-Kul, Kyrgyzstan

Abstract

Streamflow impacts water supply and flood protection. Snowmelt floods occur frequently, especially in mountainous areas, and they pose serious threats to natural and socioeconomic systems. The current forecasting method relies on basic snowmelt accumulation and has geographic limitations that restrict the accuracy and timeliness of flood simulation and prediction. In this study, we clarified the precipitation types in two selected catchments by verifying accumulated and maximum temperatures’ influences on snow melting using a separation algorithm of rain and snow that incorporates with the temperatures. The new snow-melting process utilizing the algorithm in the soil and water assessment tool model (SWAT) was also developed by considering the temperatures. The SWAT model was used to simulate flooding and snowmelt in the catchments. We found that the contributions of snowmelt to the river flow were approximately 6% and 7% higher, according to our model compared to the original model, for catchments A and B, respectively. After the model improvement, the flood peaks increased by 49.42% and 43.87% in A and B, respectively. The contributions of snowmelt to stream flow increased by 24.26% and 31% for A and B, respectively. Generally, the modifications improved the model accuracy, the accuracy of snowmelt’s contributions to runoff, the accuracy of predicting flood peaks, the time precision, and the flood frequency simulations.

Keywords

• Issyk-Kul
• SWAT
• accumulated temperature
• snowmelt