آیندهپژوهی دفاعی (Feb 2021)
Assessing the probabilities of occurrence and the impact of climatic elements in planning future military operations in Khuzestan
Abstract
Climate is one of the factors that affect military plans, tactics and doctrines, command, troop selection, military equipment, clothing, readiness, maintenance, construction, and support. One of the concerns of battlefield commanders for long-term planning in the future is awareness of the likelihood of occurrence and the impact of climate elements on military operations. To assess the probability of occurrence and the impact of climatic elements in the planning of future military operations in the Khuzestan region, eight synoptic stations in the region were selected that had a statistical period of more than 30 years. Climatic data related to temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and direction, cloudiness, field of view, rain and snow were received from the Meteorological Organization. Then the thresholds of climatic elements affecting military operations were determined and the probabilities of occurrence of parameters affecting military operations were calculated. The results showed that most desirable military climate in Khuzestan is related to winter and autumn seasons. In winter, the military climate index in Khuzestan region varies between 13.5 to 26 percent and the highest value with more than 20 percent in Omidieh, Abadan and Dezful stations and the lowest with less than 15 percent is related to Ramhormoz station. The lowest level of desirability of the military climate in Khuzestan is related to summer and spring seasons. In summer, the military climate index in Khuzestan region varies between 35.5 to 47%, which in Abadan, Ahvaz, Bostan, Bandar Mahshahr and Omidieh stations, the index is more than 41% and there are unfavorable conditions for military activities. Finally, considering the possible future climate change in the patterns of temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, etc. in the Khuzestan region, it is predicted that the probability of occurrence and the impact of weather hazards such as heat waves, torrential rains, military tensions with Iraq over Dust, the activation of ethnic and religious divisions due to the loss of food security, migration and emptying of the country's borders, and the cost of providing security for the country's military forces, etc., will increase and affect future military operations more than before.
Keywords
