Scenario Planning in Managing Ecosystem Services and Natural Resources

Abstract

Florida is experiencing environmental challenges such as climate change, sea-level rise, and urbanization that make it difficult to develop management and policy actions to conserve our ecosystems and their goods and services, which are vital for human well being. Scenario planning is a useful tool to explore and cope with the uncertainties surrounding the future consequences of decisions, but it remains underused in Extension practices. This publication provides an overview of scenario planning and the conditions under which scenario planning can be useful. It explains how to construct and develop effective scenarios for decision making and provides illustrated, real-world examples across different scales. The goal is to introduce the concept of scenario planning to Extension and elaborate its potential to be incorporated into existing Extension programs to help develop robust, sustainable solutions to manage agriculture, ecosystem services, and natural resources in Florida.

Keywords

• Global change
• Environmental change
• Adaptive management
• Natural capital
• Sustainable development