Effects of temperature, rainfall, and El Niño Southern Oscillations on dengue-like-illness incidence in Solomon Islands

Abstract

Abstract Background This study investigated associations between climate variables (average temperature and cumulative rainfall), and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and dengue-like-illness (DLI) incidence in two provinces (Western and Guadalcanal Provinces) in Solomon Islands (SI). Methods Weekly DLI and meteorological data were obtained from the Ministry of Health and Medical Services SI and the Ministry of Environment, Climate Change, Disaster Management and Meteorology from 2015 to 2018, respectively. We used negative binomial generalized estimating equations to assess the effects of climate variables up to a lag of 2 months and ENSO on DLI incidence in SI. Results We captured an upsurge in DLI trend between August 2016 and April 2017. We found the effects of average temperature on DLI in Guadalcanal Province at lag of one month (IRR: 2.186, 95% CI: 1.094–4.368). Rainfall had minor but consistent effect in all provinces. La Niña associated with increased DLI risks in Guadalcanal Province (IRR: 4.537, 95% CI: 2.042–10.083), whereas El Niño associated with risk reduction ranging from 72.8% to 76.7% in both provinces. Conclusions Owing to the effects of climate variability and ENSO on DLI, defining suitable and sustainable measures to control dengue transmission and enhancing community resilience against climate change in low- and middle-developed countries are important.

Keywords

• Dengue-like-illness
• ENSO
• Multivariate analysis
• Solomon islands