Machine learning for improved drought forecasting in Chhattisgarh India: a statistical evaluation

Abstract

Abstract Meteorological drought is one of the major natural hazards that affects the ecosystem of the Central Indian state of Chhattisgarh. This study delves into the analysis, comparison, and prediction of drought trends spanning the period from 1993 to 2023 in the study area. Employing a comprehensive methodology, utilization of the Modified Mann–Kendall test to analyze drought trends, while assessing drought severity through the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) has been done. Further research entails assessing the link between SPI and SPEI utilizing the Pearson correlation coefficient and simple linear regression techniques. Additionally, the Support Vector Machine (SVM) and Random Forest (RF) methods were used for predictive modelling feasibility. The findings helped to deepen our understanding of drought dynamics in the region, providing important insights for drought mitigation and adaptation efforts. This study emphasizes the importance of using a variety of statistical techniques and machine learning algorithms to thoroughly analyze, compare, and forecast drought patterns, thereby informing evidence-based decision-making for sustainable water resource management and agricultural planning in Chhattisgarh, India.

Keywords

• Meteorological drought
• SPI
• SPEI
• Statistical modelling
• Machine learning algorithms
• Chhattisgarh