Image formation about future of the Iranian social security organization through scenario planning

Abstract

The security of countries is heavily dependent on public welfare provision. The role of social security is very important in providing the future-centered security given a wise view of passive defense. In other words, the achievement of this future without a desired scenario and imagination is almost impossible. The purpose of this research was to explain the scenarios onward the Social Security Organization of Iran through semi-structured interviews with experts and analyze the collected data using a 12-key factor thematic analysis technique affecting the future of this organization. The Peter Schwartz model was used to determine the future scenarios of the Social Security Organization of Iran based on the ranking of key factors. Then, the drivers were identified based on the importance and the uncertainty was set by the experts. Finally, the two factors of the degree of attention and use of management styles, and Apoliticism of the Social Security Organization gained higher ranks. The four scenarios of the Social Security Organization were set as an intelligent, dynamic, recoiled-oriented, and fragile organization being placed in the axes of formation basis (dual-axis) matrix. Meanwhile, the only scenario of the organization is the intelligent organization, which can, like two wings, cause mutation in the Social Security Organization by avoiding the Apoliticism of the organization, policies, and using management systems. In contrast, the scenario of a dynamic organization, to some extent, and the two scenarios of a recoiled-oriented and a fragile organization can cause a serious challenge towards the social security system.

Keywords

• social security
• scenario planning
• image formation