Autonomous Vehicles Probability-to-Choose and Public Usage Behavior Study in Developing Countries; Case Study: Port Said City

Abstract

The rapid development of transportation technology has had a significant impact on human life, with Autonomous Vehicle Systems (AVs) emerging as one of the most popular and intriguing products in recent years. This study aims to capture user perspectives on AV usage by estimating a utility function using the Multinomial Logit (MNL) model, and comparing it with other conventional modes of transportation, such as ordinary vehicles (OVs). The second part of the study focuses on predicting the probability of AV usage, specifically in the context of Port Said City, an urban area characterized by heterogeneous mixed traffic and users. The usage probability is influenced by network capacity and assists decision-makers in determining the appropriate course of action for AVs in three different scenarios: "perfectly-need," "limited-need," and "no-need". The study findings indicate that AVs can be a viable solution when the capacity ratio exceeds 50%, as predicted by the usage function study. While the MNL modeling using Stated Preference (SP) surveys can estimate the number of trips, it alone is insufficient for making well-informed decisions. In summary, this research underscores the potential of AVs in transportation systems and provides valuable insights for policymakers and urban planners

Keywords

• autonomous vehicle
• capacity ratio
• developing countries
• usage probability
• traffic performance