Політичні дослідження (Nov 2023)
Problem areas of restructuring of the political field of Ukraine in the conditions of war: predictive options
Abstract
The article is an attempt to predict the probable lines of restructuring of the political field of Ukraine in the conditions of war in the paradigm of key problems that may become the subject of controversy between competing actors of Ukrainian politics. The list of such problems includes the conclusion of the war, the perspective of post-war Ukrainian-Russian relations, innovations in the socio-political system of Ukraine, the public's trust in the authorities, the place of national business in the political landscape of Ukraine, the preservation of national unity in the conditions of political competition, the likely arrangement of political forces, taking into account the factor of emergence of new actors. The perspective of influence of these lines in dividing the Ukrainian political field is analyzed taking into account the opinions that are currently present in the official and analytical circles of the Euro-Atlantic community.The assumptions offered by the article are based on a comparison of the positions of the ruling regime in Ukraine and the Euro-Atlantic analysts regarding issues that are fateful for the country — victory in the war, joining NATO and the European Union, legal punishment of the Russian Federation. In this regard, it is possible to predict the strengthening of the positions of the political opposition, which will be able to use the fact that the position of Western countries on the mentioned issues can sometimes be more moderate and less categorical than the official Ukrainian one, and also depends on the domestic political situation.The author suggests that the political opposition to the ruling regime will use the discrepancy between its concentration of power and the general trend of the establishment of democracy, which is concerned about the strengthening of authoritarian regimes. A very likely development of the political field of Ukraine will be the use by the opposition of the unpopular, although inevitable in the conditions of war, practices of the ruling political power to attack it, and this tactic will be accompanied by references to the position of countries on which the future of Ukraine now depends.
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