Health Burden and Driving Force Changes Due to Exposure to PM<sub>2.5</sub> and O<sub>3</sub> from 2014 to 2060 in a Typical Industrial Province, China
Chuanyong Zhu,
Changtong Zhu,
Mengyi Qiu,
Yichao Gai,
Renqiang Li,
Ling Li,
Chen Wang,
Na Yang,
Baolin Wang,
Lei Sun,
Guihuan Yan,
Chongqing Xu
Affiliations
Chuanyong Zhu
College of Environmental Science and Engineering, Qilu University of Technology (Shandong Academy of Sciences), Jinan 250353, China
Changtong Zhu
College of Environmental Science and Engineering, Qilu University of Technology (Shandong Academy of Sciences), Jinan 250353, China
Mengyi Qiu
State Grid of China Technology Collage, State Grid, Jinan 250002, China
Yichao Gai
College of Environmental Science and Engineering, Qilu University of Technology (Shandong Academy of Sciences), Jinan 250353, China
Renqiang Li
College of Environmental Science and Engineering, Qilu University of Technology (Shandong Academy of Sciences), Jinan 250353, China
Ling Li
Ecology Institute of Shandong Academy of Science, Qilu University of Technology (Shandong Academy of Sciences), Jinan 250353, China
Chen Wang
College of Environmental Science and Engineering, Qilu University of Technology (Shandong Academy of Sciences), Jinan 250353, China
Na Yang
College of Environmental Science and Engineering, Qilu University of Technology (Shandong Academy of Sciences), Jinan 250353, China
Baolin Wang
College of Environmental Science and Engineering, Qilu University of Technology (Shandong Academy of Sciences), Jinan 250353, China
Lei Sun
College of Environmental Science and Engineering, Qilu University of Technology (Shandong Academy of Sciences), Jinan 250353, China
Guihuan Yan
Ecology Institute of Shandong Academy of Science, Qilu University of Technology (Shandong Academy of Sciences), Jinan 250353, China
Chongqing Xu
Ecology Institute of Shandong Academy of Science, Qilu University of Technology (Shandong Academy of Sciences), Jinan 250353, China
While air quality in China has improved significantly in recent years, the population is becoming increasingly vulnerable to air pollution due to the aging population. In this study, we assessed premature deaths attributable to long- and short-term exposures to PM2.5 and O3, as well as their driving forces in Shandong from 2014 to 2060 based on county-level near-real-time air pollutant concentration datasets and projected concentrations of PM2.5 and O3. We found that the concentrations of PM2.5 and O3 in most districts and counties from Shandong are still higher than the corresponding concentration limit of Grade II. Premature mortality caused by long- and short-term exposures to PM2.5 decreased by 13,045 and 8092 in 2020 compared with those in 2014, respectively. Furthermore, premature mortality attributable to short-term exposure to O3 was 36.08% higher than that due to short-term exposure to PM2.5 in 2020. The results of the driving force analysis indicate that the health benefits brought about by the improvement in air quality have been offset by the changes in population age structure. In the future, the increase in O3 concentration and population aging are the top two driving forces having adverse effects on the health burden. This study provides support for controlling the health risks of PM2.5 and O3 pollution, especially for the development of dual-pollutant concentration targets and synergistic control strategies.
