Modeling the seasonality of Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus infections in hospitals with environmental contamination

Abstract

A deterministic mathematical model with periodic antibiotic prescribing rate is constructed to study the seasonality of Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) infections taking antibiotic exposure and environmental contamination into consideration. The basic reproduction number $ R_0 $ for the periodic model is calculated under the assumption that there are only uncolonized patients with antibiotic exposure at admission. Sensitivity analysis of $ R_0 $ with respect to some essential parameters is performed. It is shown that the infection would go to extinction if the basic reproduction number is less than unity and would persist if it is greater than unity. Numerical simulations indicate that environmental cleaning is the most important intervention to control the infection, which emphasizes the effect of environmental contamination in MRSA infections. It is also important to highlight the importance of effective antimicrobial stewardship programmes, increase active screening at admission and subsequent isolation of positive cases, and treat patients quickly and efficiently.

Keywords

• Seasonality
• basic reproduction number
• antibiotic exposure
• environmental contamination
• persistent