Is Green Recovery Enough? Analysing the Impacts of Post-COVID-19 Economic Packages
Pedro R. R. Rochedo,
Panagiotis Fragkos,
Rafael Garaffa,
Lilia Caiado Couto,
Luiz Bernardo Baptista,
Bruno S. L. Cunha,
Roberto Schaeffer,
Alexandre Szklo
Affiliations
Pedro R. R. Rochedo
Centre for Energy and Environmental Economics (Cenergia), Energy Planning Programme (PPE), COPPE, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Brazil-Centro de Tecnologia, Sala I-034, Cidade Universitária, Rio de Janeiro 21941-972, Brazil
Panagiotis Fragkos
E3 Modelling, 70-72 Panormou Street, PO 11523 Athens, Greece
Rafael Garaffa
Centre for Energy and Environmental Economics (Cenergia), Energy Planning Programme (PPE), COPPE, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Brazil-Centro de Tecnologia, Sala I-034, Cidade Universitária, Rio de Janeiro 21941-972, Brazil
Lilia Caiado Couto
The Bartlett School of Environment, Energy and Resources, University College London, Central House, 14 Upper Woburn Place, London WC1H 0NN, UK
Luiz Bernardo Baptista
Centre for Energy and Environmental Economics (Cenergia), Energy Planning Programme (PPE), COPPE, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Brazil-Centro de Tecnologia, Sala I-034, Cidade Universitária, Rio de Janeiro 21941-972, Brazil
Bruno S. L. Cunha
Centre for Energy and Environmental Economics (Cenergia), Energy Planning Programme (PPE), COPPE, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Brazil-Centro de Tecnologia, Sala I-034, Cidade Universitária, Rio de Janeiro 21941-972, Brazil
Roberto Schaeffer
Centre for Energy and Environmental Economics (Cenergia), Energy Planning Programme (PPE), COPPE, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Brazil-Centro de Tecnologia, Sala I-034, Cidade Universitária, Rio de Janeiro 21941-972, Brazil
Alexandre Szklo
Centre for Energy and Environmental Economics (Cenergia), Energy Planning Programme (PPE), COPPE, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Brazil-Centro de Tecnologia, Sala I-034, Cidade Universitária, Rio de Janeiro 21941-972, Brazil
Emissions pathways after COVID-19 will be shaped by how governments’ economic responses translate into infrastructure expansion, energy use, investment planning and societal changes. As a response to the COVID-19 crisis, most governments worldwide launched recovery packages aiming to boost their economies, support employment and enhance their competitiveness. Climate action is pledged to be embedded in most of these packages, but with sharp differences across countries. This paper provides novel evidence on the energy system and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions implications of post-COVID-19 recovery packages by assessing the gap between pledged recovery packages and the actual investment needs of the energy transition to reach the Paris Agreement goals. Using two well-established Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) and analysing various scenarios combining recovery packages and climate policies, we conclude that currently planned recovery from COVID-19 is not enough to enhance societal responses to climate urgency and that it should be significantly upscaled and prolonged to ensure compatibility with the Paris Agreement goals.
