Analysing the Driving Forces of Carbon Stock Change for Climate Change Mitigation

Abstract

The management of land use is a significant factor in maintaining the equilibrium of carbon stocks. However, the expansion of infrastructure, mining, industry, trade, economic activity and population has resulted in significant changes to land use, which have led to a reduction in carbon stock reserves. The objective of this study is to map the level of carbon stock reserves and to analyse the variable driving forces of carbon stock change. The variables used in this study encompass 21 distinct types, as follows: socio-economic, physical, locational, land and spatial planning aspects. The dependent variable comprises the level of carbon stock by land use type in 2014, 2018, and 2022. Spatial regression analysis was employed to ascertain the driving forces that exert a predominant influence on alterations in carbon stock reserves. The results of the spatial regression analysis between the dependent and independent variables yielded a highly significant correlation, as indicated by the R-square value exceeding 0.09. This condition is influenced by the use of complex and comprehensive variables, as well as the use of spatial regression which is able to analyse between variables by considering spatial aspects. The results of the analysis demonstrate that location variables (city centre, airport and road accessibility), physical variables (relative relief) and land variables (land title status) are the most dominant variables. The analysis of the driving force of carbon stock change represents a crucial aspect of land use management and the control of land use change from areas with high to low carbon stock. In order to maintain the balance of carbon stock reserves, it is essential to optimise mangrove areas and implement reforestation initiatives in forest areas.

Keywords

• carbon stock
• climate change
• land use
• driving forces