Simulation of Carbon Emission Reduction in Power Construction Projects Using System Dynamics: A Chinese Empirical Study

Abstract

Power construction projects (PCPs) consume a large amount of energy and contribute significantly to carbon emissions. There is relatively little research on carbon emission reduction in PCPs, especially in predicting carbon emission reduction from a dynamic perspective. After identifying the influencing factors that promote the carbon emission reduction effect of PCPs, this study adopted a dynamic analysis method to elucidate the relationship between the variables. A quantitative carbon emission reduction system for PCPs with 51 variables was established using the system dynamics model, and the system simulation was performed using Vensim PLE software. Finally, a sensitivity analysis was conducted on four key factors: R&D investment, the prefabricated construction level, the scale of using energy-saving material, and the energy efficiency of transmission equipment. The results show that: (1) The reduction in carbon emissions from PCPs continues to increase. (2) R&D investment is the most significant factor for improving the carbon emission reduction in PCPs. (3) The value of the above four influencing factors should be increased within a reasonable range so that the four factors can work better to promote the carbon emission reduction effect of PCPs. This paper creatively proposes a dynamic prediction model for carbon emission reduction in the PCP, and the research results provide the scientific basis for government supervision and enterprise decision-making.

Keywords

• carbon emission reduction
• power construction project
• system dynamics
• simulation
• sensitivity analysis