Land use, climate, and water change in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta (VMD) using earth observation and hydrological modeling

Abstract

Study region: The Vietnamese Mekong Delta (VMD) is located in Vietnam Study focus: The Vietnamese Mekong Delta (VMD) region has one of the leading productions of rice in the world and it stands at the intersection of extreme anthropogenic activity and climate change. To this end, the major focus of this study is to explore the changes in land use, climate, water resources, and their inter-relationship, which are intended to showcase the ability of publicly available earth observations and models in improving understanding of the past changes and future scenarios and contribute to improved decision making. We analyzed the change of agricultural crops (single, double, and triple) and climatic parameters (precipitation, and land surface temperature, and evapotranspiration). Consequently, we used Soil and Water Assessment Tool Model (SWAT) and selected six GCMs for extreme climate to investigate the change of streamflow. New hydrological insights: Our results indicated that double rice crop and aquaculture are the top two land use categories in the VMD, the areas of triple rice crop have increased significantly, especially for the An Giang and Dong Thap provinces. However, by examining the climate, water, and land data analytics, we see challenges in the expansion of triple rice crop over VMD. The spatio-temporal changes in climate variables and future streamflow projections provide strong evidence to water resources managers and decision-makers in the VMD.

Keywords

• Vietnamese Mekong Delta
• SWAT
• Climate change
• LANDSAT
• MODIS