Screening of COVID-19 cases through a Bayesian network symptoms model and psychophysical olfactory test
Susana Eyheramendy,
Pedro A. Saa,
Eduardo A. Undurraga,
Carlos Valencia,
Carolina López,
Luis Méndez,
Javier Pizarro-Berdichevsky,
Andrés Finkelstein-Kulka,
Sandra Solari,
Nicolás Salas,
Pedro Bahamondes,
Martín Ugarte,
Pablo Barceló,
Marcelo Arenas,
Eduardo Agosin
Affiliations
Susana Eyheramendy
Faculty of Engineering and Science, Universidad Adolfo Ibáñez, Santiago, Chile; Millennium Institute for Foundational Research on Data (IMFD), Santiago, Chile
Pedro A. Saa
Department of Chemical and Bioprocess Engineering, School of Engineering, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago, Chile; Institute for Mathematical and Computational Engineering, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago, Chile
Eduardo A. Undurraga
School of Government, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago, Chile; Millennium Initiative for Collaborative Research in Bacterial Resistance (MICROB-R), Santiago, Chile; Research Center for Integrated Disaster Risk Management (CIGIDEN), Santiago, Chile; CIFAR Azrieli Global Scholars Program, Toronto, Canada
Carlos Valencia
Center for Aromas and Flavors, DICTUC SA., Santiago, Chile
Carolina López
Center for Aromas and Flavors, DICTUC SA., Santiago, Chile
Luis Méndez
Endoscopy Unit, Hospital Padre Hurtado, Santiago, Chile; Department of Gastroenterology, Clínica Alemana de Santiago, Santiago, Chile
Javier Pizarro-Berdichevsky
Center for Innovation in Pelvic Floor, Hospital Sótero del Río, Santiago, Chile; Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Faculty of Medicine, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago, Chile
Andrés Finkelstein-Kulka
Department of Otolaryngology, Clínica Alemana de Santiago, Santiago, Chile; Faculty of Medicine, Clínica Alemana Universidad del Desarrollo, Santiago, Chile
Sandra Solari
Department of Clinical Laboratory, Faculty of Medicine, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago, Chile
Nicolás Salas
Millennium Institute for Foundational Research on Data (IMFD), Santiago, Chile
Pedro Bahamondes
Millennium Institute for Foundational Research on Data (IMFD), Santiago, Chile
Martín Ugarte
Millennium Institute for Foundational Research on Data (IMFD), Santiago, Chile
Pablo Barceló
Millennium Institute for Foundational Research on Data (IMFD), Santiago, Chile; Institute for Mathematical and Computational Engineering, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago, Chile
Marcelo Arenas
Millennium Institute for Foundational Research on Data (IMFD), Santiago, Chile; Institute for Mathematical and Computational Engineering, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago, Chile; Department of Computer Science, School of Engineering, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago, Chile; Corresponding author
Eduardo Agosin
Department of Chemical and Bioprocess Engineering, School of Engineering, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago, Chile; Center for Aromas and Flavors, DICTUC SA., Santiago, Chile; Corresponding author
Summary: The sudden loss of smell is among the earliest and most prevalent symptoms of COVID-19 when measured with a clinical psychophysical test. Research has shown the potential impact of frequent screening for olfactory dysfunction, but existing tests are expensive and time consuming. We developed a low-cost ($0.50/test) rapid psychophysical olfactory test (KOR) for frequent testing and a model-based COVID-19 screening framework using a Bayes Network symptoms model. We trained and validated the model on two samples: suspected COVID-19 cases in five healthcare centers (n = 926; 33% prevalence, 309 RT-PCR confirmed) and healthy miners (n = 1,365; 1.1% prevalence, 15 RT-PCR confirmed). The model predicted COVID-19 status with 76% and 96% accuracy in the healthcare and miners samples, respectively (healthcare: AUC = 0.79 [0.75–0.82], sensitivity: 59%, specificity: 87%; miners: AUC = 0.71 [0.63–0.79], sensitivity: 40%, specificity: 97%, at 0.50 infection probability threshold). Our results highlight the potential for low-cost, frequent, accessible, routine COVID-19 testing to support society's reopening.