Projection of Water Supply and Demand in Yazd Province Using the General Regional Equilibrium Pattern

Abstract

Aims & Backgrounds: Water is considered as one of the main sources for development in Iran, especially in the margin of desert. The lack of water resources is one of the main limiting factors in the life of a society and the development of economic activities. Regarding the fundamental problems of urban water supply in Yazd province, combined management of water supply and demand in order to balance the future supply and demand of water is considered as one of the long-term solutions to manage the water crisis. Methodology: In this study, by developing a general equilibrium water status model, three scenarios on consumption and three scenarios in water supply at the horizon of 2018 to 2046 were investigated. Findings: Based on the predictions made in all cases of supply shortages in Yazd province, even taking into account the most optimistic rainfall situation, 265 million cubic meters of urban water and taking into account the realistic pattern and ongoing state of the art in providing water resources of 1.97 billion, there will be a lack of urban water resources cubic meters. Also, in the event of an increase in the drought wave in the province and the lack of optimal policies in the field of water demand, there will be 557.5 million cubic meters of water shortage in order to provide the water needed by the residents of Yazd province. Conclusion: In order to control the supply and demand of water in the province, in addition to the use of demand management policies such as optimal pricing, rationing and supply policies such as reforming the transmission system, the establishment of purification and separation of drinking water and sanitation, the need for water transfer methods from sustainable resources outside the province should also be taken seriously.

Keywords

• assumption
• economic development
• water supply
• water demand
• yazd province.